Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:29:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4b4…156a crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$205 (+2%) realized +$205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate72%68W / 26L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$591
weather 5% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +3.2% -6.6% 72% 67% -3.3%
≤30d 94 +3.2% -6.6% 72% 67% -3.3%
≤90d 94 +3.2% -6.6% 72% 67% -3.3%
all 94 +3.2% -6.6% 72% 67% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 67% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 62% -12.5%
15% -23.7% 41% -21.0%
20% -31.2% 18% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$85 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses68 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage5d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $204 +$93 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$58 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$75 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $203 +$57 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$32 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$41 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $206 +$129 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$56 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$74 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$62 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$81 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$38 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$45 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$66 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$32 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$15 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$46 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$32 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$85 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$34 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $204 −$65 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$47 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$53 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$34 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$46 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$39 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$41 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records