Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4b4…1300 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate88%29W / 4L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$66
other 6% +$15
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +8.6% -1.7% 88% 61% -1.7%
≤30d 33 +8.6% -1.7% 88% 61% -1.7%
≤90d 33 +8.6% -1.7% 88% 61% -1.7%
all 33 +8.6% -1.7% 88% 61% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 61% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 30% -11.1%
15% -19.7% 12% -19.7%
20% -27.6% 6% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses29 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.02 · official $76.02 (match) · 74 history records