Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4b2…580c other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$28 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$20
sports 18% +$19
crypto 11% −$18
weather 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -16.8% -24.7% 32% 32% -9.4%
≤30d 19 -16.8% -24.7% 32% 32% -9.4%
≤90d 19 -16.8% -24.7% 32% 32% -9.4%
all 19 -16.8% -24.7% 32% 32% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 32% -9.4%
10% -31.9% 26% -18.0%
15% -38.5% 21% -26.0%
20% -44.5% 16% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 85¢ 38¢ $42 $19 −$23 (-55%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$14 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $11 +$15 +138%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$12 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 78¢ $43 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $10 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $1 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 16¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.51 · official $23.51 (match) · 47 history records