Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4b0…42eb weather 561 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-3%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate89%483W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$7
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$13
crypto 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -2.9% -12.2% 90% 27% -12.1%
≤30d 545 -6.5% -15.4% 89% 19% -12.3%
≤90d 545 -6.5% -15.4% 89% 19% -12.3%
all 545 -6.5% -15.4% 89% 19% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 19% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 6% -20.7%
15% -30.9% 0% -28.4%
20% -37.7% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses483 / 62
Open positions16
Markets (closed)545 / 561
History coverage29d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 83¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? No 94¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16? No 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 82¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 93¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.30 · official $15.30 (match) · 1071 history records