Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4af…ec5a other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 53L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% −$14
politics 15% −$11
other 15% −$2
crypto 2% +$1
sports 2% +$87
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +10.7% +0.1% 17% 11% -7.2%
≤90d 60 +8.2% -2.1% 25% 17% -8.0%
all 71 +6.8% -3.4% 25% 14% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 14% -9.3%
10% -12.7% 14% -17.9%
15% -21.1% 14% -25.9%
20% -28.8% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage580d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $146 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $12 +$11 +97%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $150 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $9 +$14 +152%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $264 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $398 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $125 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $259 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $134 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $131 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $133 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $274 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $135 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $276 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $129 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $13 +$10 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 20h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 24h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $5 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $20 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $30 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 16d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 16d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $23 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.20 · official $133.20 (match) · 253 history records