Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D4 0xd4af…0449 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$318 (-10%) realized −$14 · open −$304

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$354per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$2,736now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$59

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-15.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+199.3%	+170.8%	100%	100%	+170.8%
≤90d	2	+86.3%	+68.6%	50%	50%	+115.5%
all	4	-6.8%	-15.7%	25%	25%	-19.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.7%	25%	-19.1%
10%	-23.8%	25%	-26.8%
15%	-31.1%	25%	-33.9%
20%	-37.9%	25%	-40.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +138% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$59 vs −$23 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.84 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage

Net worth$2,736

Realized−$14

Unrealized−$304

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions5

Markets (closed)4 / 9

History coverage114d

Avg bet$354

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$1,226	$1,173	−$52 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$1,494	$1,155	−$339 (-23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	5¢	$110	$156	+$46 (+42%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$110	$131	+$21 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	9¢	$100	$120	+$20 (+20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 03	$29	+$59	+199%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	May 18	$22	−$3	-13%
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Mar 20	$37	−$37	-100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Mar 08	$30	−$30	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$535	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$64	1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$323	6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$7	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$72	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$19	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$67	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$31	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$53	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$0	9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$39	9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$114	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$17	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$23	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$129	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$13	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$32	11d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$111	12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$266	12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$95	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,735.61 · official $2,735.61 (match) · 196 history records