Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

D4 0xd4ae…8ead other 33 markets active 8h ago coverage 2d

BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover

✗ bot/MM pace (1034 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$17,418 (+62%) realized +$17,448 · open −$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR23%break-even

Win rate39%12W / 19L

Whale WR62%big bets

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$846per market

Trades / day1034.4pace

Fees−$25est.

Kalshi-fit6%portable

Net worth$1,251now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (1034 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +23%

net ROI/market (all)-6.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	31	+3.4%	-6.5%	39%	23%	+48.9%
≤30d	31	+3.4%	-6.5%	39%	23%	+48.9%
≤90d	31	+3.4%	-6.5%	39%	23%	+48.9%
all	31	+3.4%	-6.5%	39%	23%	+48.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1034.4 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.5%	23%	+48.9%
10%	-15.4%	13%	+34.6%
15% ← realistic here	-23.6%	13%	+21.6%
20%	-31.1%	13%	+9.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

42% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,380) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

45.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$1,956 vs −$335 · ×5.84 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$1,251

Realized+$17,448

Unrealized−$30

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses12 / 19

Whale WR (big bets)62%

Est. fees paid−$25

Open positions2

Markets (closed)31 / 33

History coverage2d

Avg bet$846

Trades / day1034.4

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 31 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	14¢	12¢	$280	$250	−$30 (-11%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	Jun 18	$180	−$108	-60%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic?	Jun 18	$136	−$136	-100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$3,523	+$480	+14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 18	$825	+$5,899	+715%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic?	Jun 18	$150	−$150	-100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$714	+$56	+8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$980	+$1,020	+104%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa?	Jun 18	$5,451	+$348	+6%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$286	−$17	-6%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar?	Jun 18	$1,380	$0	-0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 18	$2,447	−$2,312	-94%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$435	−$435	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 18	$47	$0	+0%
Switzerland leading at halftime?	Jun 18	$587	−$587	-100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$328	−$328	-100%
South Africa leading at halftime?	Jun 18	$35	$0	+1%
Canada leading at halftime?	Jun 18	$560	+$440	+79%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?	Jun 18	$2,879	+$341	+12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 18	$51	−$43	-85%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	Jun 18	$56	−$56	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$1,505	−$1,504	-100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama?	Jun 17	$77	−$77	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$1,892	+$14,774	+781%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 17	$1,948	+$102	+5%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama?	Jun 17	$832	+$9	+1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia?	Jun 17	$30	−$13	-44%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$240	−$210	-88%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$6	+$1	+20%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
England leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$42	−$41	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$3	8h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	8¢	$80	8h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$0	8h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	8h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$27	8h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$0	8h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	14¢	$250	9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$17	9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$6	9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$19	9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	SELL Yes	9¢	$70	9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	14¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	14¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	14¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	14¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	14¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	14¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	14¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	9h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	9h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,251.17 · official $1,251.17 (match) · 1658 history records