Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4ad…2161 sports 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$122 (-5%) realized −$48 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%61W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days−$60
14 days−$66
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$161
crypto 35% +$7
other 15% −$57
world 1% −$9
culture 0% −$4
economics 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -27.2% -34.1% 21% 20% -15.5%
≤30d 81 -12.6% -20.9% 27% 26% -8.7%
≤90d 174 -15.7% -23.8% 32% 31% -18.2%
all 182 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 32% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 32% -16.0%
10% -28.0% 30% -24.0%
15% -34.9% 30% -31.4%
20% -41.3% 30% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses61 / 121
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)182 / 189
History coverage232d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Over 27¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$40 +165%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 +$35 +226%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 +$41 +307%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 +$107 +550%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $32 +$70 +216%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $19 +$38 +197%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 +$64 +340%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $16 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $18 +$26 +139%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $12 +$34 +276%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$32 +158%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$23 +234%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. AZ: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $44 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $13 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $25 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 3¢ $5 11h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $10 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $13 14h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $16 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $18 15h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $27 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $15 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $19 21h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $32 23h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $25 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $19 26h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $8 26h
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $15 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $46 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $11 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $5 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 356 history records