Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd4ac…f49b sports 1749 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%862W / 469L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day90.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$131
14 days+$233
30 days+$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$371
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 411 +32.8% +20.2% 68% 68% +18.9%
≤30d 1331 +27.4% +15.3% 65% 65% +15.3%
≤90d 1331 +27.4% +15.3% 65% 65% +15.3%
all 1331 +27.4% +15.3% 65% 65% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.3% 65% +15.3%
10% ← realistic here +4.3% 62% +4.3%
15% -5.8% 53% -5.8%
20% -15.1% 40% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses862 / 469
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions46
Markets (closed)1331 / 1749
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 1331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner HyperSpirit 36¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+178%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Federico Bondioli 43¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+134%)
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) HyperSpirit 54¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Alen Mujakic vs Vlado Jankanj Vlado Jankanj 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Gill vs. Gaston: Match O/U 22.5 Over 60¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Giron Giron 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner TDK 67¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Max Hans Rehberg 55¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 68¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B LPH Gaming 21¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis Facundo Yunis 31¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Sashi Esport 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner ex-RUBY 69¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming - Map 1 Winner LPH Gaming 29¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
ITF Milano: Florent Bax vs Stefano D'agostino Florent Bax 48¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 42¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears KT Wiz 82¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych Daniil Sarksian 65¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
ITF Tauste: Juliana Giaccio vs Didi Bredberg Canizares Didi Bredberg Canizares 43¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 63¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
ITF Constanta: Gabriel Ghetu vs Anas Mazdrashki Anas Mazdrashki 64¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 66¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 454 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kayseri: Dev Javia vs Maxim Shin Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $1 +$5 +442%
ITF Blois: Anouck Vrancken Peeters vs Lucie Nguyen Tan Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Set 1 Winner: Dias vs Choinski Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Set 1 Winner: Frech vs Lys Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Wang Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Nadja Mladenovic Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey Jun 16 $1 +$1 +146%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $1 +$3 +258%
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Taipei: Fang An Lin vs Mio Mushika Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
ITF Taipei: Chia Yi Tsao vs Sakura Hosogi Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY LPH Gaming 29¢ $1 1m
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Facundo Yunis BUY Facundo Yunis 31¢ $1 4m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 71¢ $1 10m
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 33¢ $1 14m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 77¢ $1 16m
ITF Bucharest: Stefania Bojica vs Tea Kovacevic BUY Tea Kovacevic 52¢ $1 20m
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY LPH Gaming 21¢ $1 24m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 39¢ $1 29m
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych BUY Daniil Sarksian 65¢ $1 29m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 69¢ $1 29m
ITF Milano: Florent Bax vs Stefano D'agostino BUY Florent Bax 48¢ $1 32m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ $1 34m
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy BUY Margaux Rouvroy 45¢ $1 36m
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 71¢ $1 41m
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Giron BUY Giron 65¢ $1 42m
ITF Bucharest: Lavinia Luciano vs Alesia Breaz BUY Lavinia Luciano $1 48m
ITF Tauste: Juliana Giaccio vs Didi Bredberg Canizares BUY Didi Bredberg Canizares 43¢ $1 50m
ITF Bucharest: Lucie Urbanova vs Anastasia Safta BUY Lucie Urbanova 66¢ $1 57m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 55¢ $1 1h
ITF Constanta: Gabriel Ghetu vs Anas Mazdrashki BUY Anas Mazdrashki 64¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 68¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Refuser 27¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 56¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 40¢ $1 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 43¢ $1 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 82¢ $1 1h
Set 1 Winner: Frech vs Lys BUY Lys 83¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 29¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 81¢ $1 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Alen Mujakic vs Vlado Jankanj BUY Vlado Jankanj 60¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.56 · official $45.69 (match) · 2633 history records