Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4ac…82a8 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$3
sports 12% $0
politics 10% −$1
other 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +1.5% -8.2% 30% 10% -8.4%
all 33 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage476d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $36 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $36 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $35 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $12 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $28 +$4 +13%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 22 $7 $0 -4%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 13 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Apr 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $14 −$1 -4%
Stonehill vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Mar 05 $14 $0 -0%
La Salle vs. George Mason Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Mar 03 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $7 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $29 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $36 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $36 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $23 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $6 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $18 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $12 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $40 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $40 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $36 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $20 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $16 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 87¢ $35 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $12 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 44¢ $32 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 39¢ $28 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $21 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $13 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $35 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $23 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $9 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $32 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.02 · official $35.02 (match) · 92 history records