Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd4aa…f861
other · 73 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$9 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$102 · open −$79
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$295
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions30
Markets (closed)43 / 73
History coverage73d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 30 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$58
14 days+$94
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 18¢ $32 $13 −$19 (-59%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will Canada finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-44%)
Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $2 −$16 (-90%)
Will Solana reach $220 by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-55%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $50 +$25 +49%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 $0 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 +$15 +53%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$17 +86%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$27 -66%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $62 +$63 +103%
Celonis IPO before 2027? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Anduril IPO before 2027? May 30 $5 $0 -4%
ByteDance IPO before 2027? May 30 $4 $0 +5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 30 $52 −$21 -41%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $10 $0 +2%
Revolut IPO before 2027? May 21 $4 $0 +4%
Stripe IPO before 2027? May 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 21 $51 −$19 -38%
Will Boyko Borissov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 May 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 May 14 $55 −$35 -64%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 02 $19 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $30 +$14 +47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 27 $34 +$25 +73%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on April 27? Apr 27 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of April? Apr 27 $35 +$3 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $18 +$39 +219%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 25 $13 +$1 +6%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Apr 23 $3 $0 +3%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 23 $26 +$6 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $57 +$77 +136%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $11 +$12 +107%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $22 −$22 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 14 $4 +$3 +69%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $10 +$40 +400%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$58
world 25% +$101
sports 15% +$61
politics 10% −$92
tech 6% +$26
crypto 4% −$21
finance 3% +$25
economics 2% −$19
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 $1 30m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $13 56m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 43¢ $13 57m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 34¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 19¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 19¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 20¢ $4 1h
Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gr SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2h
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 3h
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 3h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3h
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 3h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 3h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 3h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +74.2% +57.6% 83% 83% +40.1%
≤30d 16 +25.6% +13.6% 62% 38% +4.8%
≤90d 43 +14.3% +3.4% 56% 37% +1.0%
all 43 +14.3% +3.4% 56% 37% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 37% +1.0%
10% -6.5% 37% -8.6%
15% -15.5% 33% -17.5%
20% -23.8% 26% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.79 · official $294.23 (match) · 185 history records