Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd4a9…75f9 weather 854 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$661 (-2%) realized −$668 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate53%448W / 401L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$589now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$259
14 days−$310
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$726
world 1% −$32
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.9% -14.9% 73% 8% -16.7%
≤30d 96 +0.7% -8.9% 80% 9% -11.1%
≤90d 565 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 34% -11.9%
all 849 -5.8% -14.8% 53% 30% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 30% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 13% -20.3%
15% -30.4% 7% -28.0%
20% -37.2% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$589
Realized−$668
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses448 / 401
Open positions5
Markets (closed)849 / 854
History coverage108d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 849 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 96¢ 98¢ $167 $170 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? No 95¢ 98¢ $164 $169 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? No 96¢ 94¢ $166 $163 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? No 93¢ 94¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $167 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $162 +$19 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $86 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $162 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $141 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $144 −$91 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $144 −$70 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $153 −$45 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 −$62 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $154 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $151 −$34 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $154 +$17 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $155 −$29 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11? Jun 11 $105 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $152 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $151 +$14 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $119 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $156 −$50 -32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $129 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $156 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $96 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $154 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $154 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $151 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $152 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 07 $153 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 7? Jun 07 $152 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 98°F or higher on June 8? Jun 07 $51 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 06 $149 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 6? Jun 06 $116 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $153 −$41 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 06 $153 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 06 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 05 $156 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $157 −$59 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 05 $154 +$16 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $156 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 4? Jun 04 $155 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 4? Jun 04 $155 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 04 $156 −$13 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $154 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 04 $154 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $154 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $13 12m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $13 43m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $165 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $170 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $167 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $43 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $167 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $122 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $181 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $12 11h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $19 11h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $143 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $72 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $28 15h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $58 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 98¢ $106 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $162 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $588.81 · official $588.81 (match) · 2977 history records