Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd4a9…5dd9
sports · 20 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$66 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$64 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$22
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 3 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 31¢ 48¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+58%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 20¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Costa Rica? Yes 12¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 46¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 28¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 13¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 16¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$56 +114%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $23 +$44 +189%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $21 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% −$118
other 19% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 27m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 28m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $4 48m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY 32¢ $20 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $28 31h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 13¢ $10 35h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 16¢ $10 37h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic vs. Czechi BUY 34¢ $20 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11 BUY 21¢ $20 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL $0 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY 31¢ $57 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $67 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 57¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 20¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Costa Rica? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $44 4d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 28¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.6% -36.3% 36% 36% -30.6%
≤30d 14 -29.6% -36.3% 36% 36% -30.6%
≤90d 14 -29.6% -36.3% 36% 36% -30.6%
all 14 -29.6% -36.3% 36% 36% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 36% -30.6%
10% -42.4% 29% -37.3%
15% -48.0% 29% -43.3%
20% -53.1% 29% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.15 · official $42.15 · 29 history records