Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D4 0xd4a8…fea1 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$19
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$14
other 17% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -10.1%
all 10 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage14d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $345 −$2 -1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $170 $0 -0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $315 +$2 +0%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $170 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 16 $435 −$2 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $265 −$17 -6%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $255 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $375 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $179 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $100 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $220 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $19 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $345 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $20 41h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $149 41h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL No 64¢ $317 41h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $50 43h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $119 43h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 43h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $315 45h
United States to score first vs. Australia? SELL No 34¢ $170 6d
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY No 34¢ $170 7d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 65¢ $9 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 87¢ $433 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 87¢ $435 9d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 64¢ $9 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 50¢ $224 9d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $256 10d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $255 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $9 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $3 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $5 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records