Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D4 0xd4a6…db37 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 519d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL −$2,407 (-22%) realized −$2,408 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%28W / 28L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$312
7 days+$900
14 days+$737
30 days+$829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$319
tech 19% −$536
sports 12% +$408
politics 7% −$737
crypto 6% −$99
world 5% −$67
economics 2% −$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +45.5% +31.7% 88% 88% +29.0%
≤30d 30 +22.1% +10.5% 70% 70% +9.4%
≤90d 37 +67.3% +51.4% 68% 68% +7.6%
all 56 +28.7% +16.4% 50% 48% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.4% 48% -23.0%
10% +5.3% 46% -30.4%
15% -4.9% 43% -37.1%
20% -14.2% 29% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +36% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$116 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized−$2,408
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses28 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 68
History coverage519d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $112 $112 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $139 +$66 +47%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 +$40 +41%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $110 +$96 +87%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $108 +$59 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $299 +$168 +56%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $155 +$102 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$18 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $395 +$134 +34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $189 +$90 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $66 +$76 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $101 +$55 +55%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 04 $680 −$50 -7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $167 +$143 +86%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $51 +$15 +30%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $51 +$25 +49%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $151 +$23 +15%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 07 $53 +$7 +14%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 03 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 01 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 19 $43 −$29 -67%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 22 $32 −$4 -12%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 22 $439 −$27 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 14 $61 −$6 -10%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $31 +$12 +39%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jan 10 $1,311 −$475 -36%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Dec 15 $161 −$30 -19%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Dec 15 $589 −$30 -5%
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 02 $607 −$607 -100%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $1,024 −$603 -59%
Will Ireland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 55¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $128 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $115 29h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 54¢ $51 29h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026- BUY 42¢ $51 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 47¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on BUY 58¢ $101 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 59¢ $51 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $61 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $359 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $79 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 43¢ $77 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 70¢ $98 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 53¢ $110 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 66¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on BUY 39¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $108 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Türkiye to score first vs. Paragua BUY 48¢ $51 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $257 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $78 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $78 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $54 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.22 · official $557.22 · 141 history records