Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd4a4…3c66 sports 490 markets active 7h ago coverage 865d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,545 (+1%) realized +$2,545 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%306W / 179L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$205est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$399
7 days+$1,701
14 days+$3,868
30 days−$1,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$1,321
other 32% +$2,825
politics 16% −$10
crypto 2% +$642
world 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -22.4% -29.8% 56% 39% -4.9%
≤30d 53 -18.1% -25.9% 53% 43% -10.8%
≤90d 107 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 55% -10.0%
all 485 -2.5% -11.8% 63% 54% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 54% -8.5%
10% -20.2% 43% -17.3%
15% -27.9% 34% -25.3%
20% -35.0% 24% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$143 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

865d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,545
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses306 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$205
Open positions0
Markets (closed)485 / 490
History coverage865d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 485 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $105 −$104 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $299 +$201 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,400 +$600 +14%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoir Jun 25 $403 +$104 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $460 −$460 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg Jun 25 $205 +$57 +28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $916 +$84 +9%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $355 −$195 -55%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 24 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12,090 +$484 +4%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $56 −$45 -81%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12,515 +$646 +5%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $197 +$103 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $304 +$196 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $617 +$383 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $3,632 −$2,943 -81%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $510 −$510 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,766 +$5,234 +77%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $658 +$41 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,825 +$519 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $810 +$190 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,302 +$671 +52%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $275 +$125 +46%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $115 +$85 +73%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $251 +$149 +60%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,509 +$435 +29%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $390 −$390 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,314 −$918 -70%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $386 +$180 +47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $125 +$75 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,400 −$3,222 -60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $310 +$290 +93%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,982 +$318 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $750 −$320 -43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,247 +$195 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,910 +$2,090 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,296 +$1,001 +44%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $161 −$161 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $627 −$627 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 26¢ $50 7h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $105 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,718 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $0 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $0 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $0 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $0 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $35 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $53 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $220 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $90 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $23 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $25 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $2,146 10h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoir BUY 79¢ $403 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 28¢ $102 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $299 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $257 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $39 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $18 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2272 history records