Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd4a1…3883
other · 12 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$1 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$6
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 2 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 24¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -41%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $7 +$4 +50%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -49%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +145%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% +$5
other 44% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland $0 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland $0 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 72¢ $5 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 25h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes $1 26h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 27h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $7 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 27h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $7 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 50% +0.0%
≤30d 10 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 50% +0.0%
≤90d 10 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 50% +0.0%
all 10 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 50% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 50% +0.0%
10% -15.4% 50% -9.6%
15% -23.6% 40% -18.3%
20% -31.1% 20% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.95 · official $5.95 (match) · 22 history records