Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd49f…be18 world 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$8
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$22
other 29% +$5
sports 12% −$2
economics 11% −$1
politics 7% −$1
finance 1% −$1
weather 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.3% -6.5% 36% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 27 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 36 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 6% -9.9%
all 65 +0.5% -9.1% 34% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.8%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage331d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $74 +$2 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $70 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $141 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $19 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $9 +$3 +33%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $67 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $198 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 +$1 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $73 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $73 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $74 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $248 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $64 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $65 +$4 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $56 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $189 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $62 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $63 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $50 +$7 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $153 −$38 -25%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $529 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $619 +$2 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $621 −$2 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $685 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $62 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on August 7? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 05 $60 +$1 +2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $69 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $40 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $29 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $69 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $70 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $77 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $77 24h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 33h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 33h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $11 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $56 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $67 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $67 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $67 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $33 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 45¢ $32 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $66 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $72 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $73 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.66 · official $68.66 (match) · 278 history records