Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd49f…00ca crypto 1621 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$11 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate88%1432W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
sports 0% −$1
world 0% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 434 -1.2% -10.7% 87% 40% -8.4%
≤30d 464 -0.9% -10.3% 88% 40% -8.1%
≤90d 739 -1.8% -11.2% 86% 52% -10.0%
all 1619 -0.7% -10.1% 88% 26% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 26% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1432 / 187
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1619 / 1621
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.06 · official $5.06 (match) · 3500 history records