Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd49e…4ff0
crypto · 63 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$179 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$168 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)54 / 63
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day188.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 7 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$168
14 days−$168
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Hall 33¢ 22¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$6 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$12 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +51%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$25 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $64 −$36 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $136 +$25 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $133 −$46 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $64 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $117 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $78 +$47 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $57 +$21 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $90 −$35 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$35 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$13 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $57 −$25 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $15 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$191
sports 4% +$14
other 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $60 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -30.3% -36.9% 41% 37% -22.5%
≤30d 54 -30.3% -36.9% 41% 37% -22.5%
≤90d 54 -30.3% -36.9% 41% 37% -22.5%
all 54 -30.3% -36.9% 41% 37% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover188.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.9% 37% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -43.0% 30% -29.9%
15% -48.5% 28% -36.7%
20% -53.5% 19% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.07 · official $53.82 · 233 history records