Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd499…0bff
crypto · 121 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$384 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$378 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$378
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses65 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)116 / 121
History coverage188d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 5 History 116 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$24
14 days+$64
30 days−$2,297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 52¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $8 +$7 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $122 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $14 +$1 +4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $20 +$26 +129%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $50 +$4 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $27 +$15 +56%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $10 +$10 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4? Jun 05 $13 +$31 +236%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 24? May 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 24? May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 23? May 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 21? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $65 +$5 +7%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 18 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 1? May 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on December 25? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 7? May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on January 3? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 9? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 31 May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 3? May 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 9? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? May 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 28? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 2? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on December 25? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on January 1? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 May 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$125
economics 3% +$56
other 2% +$22
politics 2% −$410
sports 1% +$51
world 0% +$10
weather 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $3 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY Yes 0¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 31h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 44h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $10 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 84¢ $10 2d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 3d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $10 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $10 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $20 7d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 7d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.0% -11.3% 62% 46% -0.5%
≤30d 67 -36.0% -42.1% 46% 19% -72.9%
≤90d 70 -30.5% -37.1% 47% 21% -70.7%
all 116 -15.6% -23.6% 56% 24% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 24% -11.0%
10% -30.9% 15% -19.6%
15% -37.6% 14% -27.3%
20% -43.7% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.87 · official $11.87 (match) · 282 history records