Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd498…a6c5 weather 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1547 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$263 (-4%) realized −$262 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%19W / 279L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1546.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1547 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -6.2% -15.2% 6% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 298 -6.2% -15.2% 6% 0% -15.0%
≤90d 298 -6.2% -15.2% 6% 0% -15.0%
all 298 -6.2% -15.2% 6% 0% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1546.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 0% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 0% -23.1%
15% -30.7% 0% -30.5%
20% -37.5% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$262
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses19 / 279
Open positions2
Markets (closed)298 / 300
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1546.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 23? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? Jun 21 $62 −$11 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $38 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 21 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? Jun 21 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? Jun 21 $120 −$9 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 21 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 21 $88 −$8 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? Jun 21 $0 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? Jun 21 $81 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 21 $71 −$11 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $14 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $66 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 21 $68 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? Jun 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $94 −$19 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 21 $31 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $95 −$7 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 21 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? Jun 21 $22 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? Jun 21 $76 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 22? Jun 21 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? Jun 21 $61 −$10 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 22? Jun 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 21 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 21 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 78¢ $14 2m
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 79¢ $15 2m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23? SELL No 68¢ $7 9m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 69¢ $7 9m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 13m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.69 · official $21.69 (match) · 2174 history records