Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd497…c62f other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,139 (+10%) realized +$1,284 · open −$145
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%46W / 69L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$3,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$308
7 days−$393
14 days−$181
30 days+$1,121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$268
sports 38% +$770
crypto 2% −$11
world 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +0.3% -9.2% 42% 41% -17.0%
≤30d 115 -8.2% -17.0% 40% 38% +3.3%
≤90d 115 -8.2% -17.0% 40% 38% +3.3%
all 115 -8.2% -17.0% 40% 38% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 38% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 30% -6.5%
15% -32.2% 24% -15.6%
20% -38.8% 18% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$44 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$3,018
Realized+$1,284
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses46 / 69
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions23
Markets (closed)115 / 140
History coverage17d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $433 $460 +$27 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $385 $449 +$64 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $496 $431 −$64 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $413 $390 −$23 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $330 $282 −$48 (-14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $209 $199 −$11 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $174 $190 +$16 (+9%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 74¢ $184 $148 −$36 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $121 $103 −$18 (-15%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $106 $97 −$9 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $105 $94 −$10 (-10%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 68¢ 42¢ $68 $42 −$26 (-38%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 69¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 25¢ $31 $25 −$6 (-19%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lionel Messi score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 93¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran? Jun 27 $8 −$7 -86%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $102 +$150 +148%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $272 +$43 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 27 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $148 +$36 +24%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $157 +$43 +27%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $108 −$106 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $14 +$36 +270%
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) Jun 26 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $18 +$32 +178%
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) Jun 26 $7 +$93 +1329%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $18 +$82 +456%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $29 +$31 +108%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $22 +$78 +359%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16 −$8 -48%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $36 −$18 -50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $132 +$68 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$8 +34%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $61 +$39 +64%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $67 +$7 +11%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 −$3 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$6 -64%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $82 +$46 +56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $44 +$56 +127%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 -38%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $55 −$42 -76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $283 +$60 +21%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $46 +$12 +27%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $186 +$25 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 58m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $147 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $111 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $126 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $188 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $34 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 69¢ $35 2h
World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran? SELL Yes $1 11h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 21h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $67 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 39¢ $77 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $40 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 41¢ $42 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,017.95 · official $3,018.48 (match) · 612 history records