Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D4 0xd496…33d7 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,920 (+20%) realized +$1,939 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$133
14 days+$439
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$1,982
sports 15% +$439
other 10% −$595
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +32.4% +19.8% 83% 83% +24.4%
≤30d 18 +13.9% +3.0% 39% 39% +7.5%
≤90d 30 -2.2% -11.5% 37% 33% -12.9%
all 38 +15.6% +4.6% 39% 37% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 37% +9.0%
10% -5.4% 37% -1.4%
15% -14.5% 29% -10.9%
20% -22.9% 24% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$391 vs −$175 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$481
Realized+$1,939
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions8
Markets (closed)38 / 48
History coverage113d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 34¢ 34¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$12 +23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$39 +76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$67 +66%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $300 −$57 -19%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $302 +$793 +263%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$111 +109%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 21 $375 −$105 -28%
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 09 $100 −$88 -88%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 202 Apr 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Mar 28 $200 +$51 +26%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 27 $504 +$27 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 27 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 27 $163 +$656 +402%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 19 $300 +$109 +36%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 12 $300 +$856 +285%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 12 $3,083 −$1,990 -65%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 06 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 01 $200 −$1 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $351 +$95 +27%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $100 −$23 -23%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $658 +$2,946 +448%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 68¢ $62 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $102 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $168 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 24¢ $243 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 15¢ $10 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $102 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,081 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 20d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $270 29d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 48d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 24¢ $51 49d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $200 49d
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 50d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 56d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $150 58d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 58d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $481.40 · official $481.40 (match) · 205 history records