Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd496…4956
crypto · 137 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$421 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$421 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$421
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses30 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage111d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 0 History 137 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 −$3 -22%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$4 -14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 11 $29 −$1 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $55 −$6 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $30 −$3 -10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$4 -47%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $25 −$2 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $332 −$9 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $3 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $82 −$1 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $77 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 27 $405 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $57 −$28 -50%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 25 $8 −$3 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 23 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 23 $110 −$4 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $17 +$1 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 23 $50 −$2 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 22 $8 −$1 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $172 −$4 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $206 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $2,060 −$18 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 21 $256 −$4 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 20 $124 −$24 -19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $82 −$4 -5%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 17 $174 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? May 17 $66 −$2 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 15 $206 −$7 -4%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? May 14 $74 −$6 -9%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 12 $254 −$6 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $144 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 11 $234 −$8 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $312 −$11 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 08 $51 −$6 -13%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 08 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 07 $0 $0 +5%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 05 $114 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $67 −$4 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 02 $24 −$3 -14%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $17 +$2 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Apr 27 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $252 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 26 $94 −$4 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $548 −$67 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $249 −$16 -6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 23 $176 −$4 -2%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $12 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 23 $28 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 74% −$243
finance 14% −$72
other 7% −$68
crypto 2% −$12
economics 1% −$3
politics 1% −$4
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% −$16
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $3 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $6 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $14 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 29h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 29h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 29h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 29h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 38¢ $6 41h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 38¢ $3 41h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 38¢ $3 41h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 29¢ $26 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 29¢ $1 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 29¢ $29 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 50¢ $49 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 55¢ $55 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? SELL Up 6¢ $1 8d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Up 9¢ $1 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? SELL Up 5¢ $5 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Up 9¢ $3 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Up 9¢ $6 8d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? SELL Up 27¢ $26 8d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Up 29¢ $29 8d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? SELL Up 11¢ $3 9d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 13¢ $0 9d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 13¢ $0 9d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 13¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.8% -19.3% 0% 0% -19.4%
≤30d 31 -8.6% -17.3% 6% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 101 -28.0% -34.9% 9% 4% -13.4%
all 137 -15.3% -23.4% 22% 18% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 18% -13.1%
10% -30.7% 16% -21.4%
15% -37.4% 16% -29.0%
20% -43.6% 15% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 766 history records