Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd492…744b world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$17
other 27% +$2
politics 18% −$1
crypto 6% $0
finance 5% −$1
culture 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 75% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 11 +5.7% -4.4% 64% 9% -6.1%
≤90d 15 +4.2% -5.8% 53% 7% -6.9%
all 33 +1.3% -8.4% 39% 3% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -7.8%
10% -17.1% 3% -16.7%
15% -25.2% 3% -24.7%
20% -32.5% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.09 per $1 lost it wins $5.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage308d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $59 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $105 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $4 $0 -3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $15 +$9 +62%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $89 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $11 −$1 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $44 +$4 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $48 +$3 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $25 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $1 $0 -19%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 04 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 06 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 05 $43 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $41 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $59 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $59 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $53 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $53 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $9 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $29 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $37 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $10 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $18 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $25 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $52 36h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $46 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $46 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $22 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $44 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $4 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $47 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $48 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $48 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $48 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 58¢ $4 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records