Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd492…7469
sports · 226 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,506 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,522 · open +$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$206
Realized−$1,522
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses113 / 108
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions5
Markets (closed)221 / 226
History coverage97d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 5 History 221 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$292
14 days−$575
30 days−$1,083
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $35 +$19 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$45 +88%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $151 +$44 +29%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $152 +$104 +69%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $91 −$42 -46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $15 +$14 +92%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $25 +$7 +28%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $56 +$23 +41%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $60 +$12 +19%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $15 +$4 +28%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $20 +$17 +84%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $15 +$11 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $10 +$5 +45%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $15 +$7 +45%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $17 +$5 +26%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $25 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$4 +40%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $20 +$17 +86%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $201 +$34 +17%
Brazil vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $20 +$24 +117%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $65 +$3 +5%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $50 +$17 +34%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $41 −$40 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $30 +$16 +54%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $151 +$51 +34%
Singapore leading at halftime? Jun 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $41 −$41 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $122 −$75 -61%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $54 +$38 +70%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $123 −$93 -76%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $191 −$99 -52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Andorra vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw? Jun 04 $43 +$13 +31%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $174 +$73 +42%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $50 −$36 -72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $56 −$38 -68%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $146 +$33 +23%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $77 −$77 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $80 −$3 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $198 −$118 -60%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $20 −$2 -9%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 02 $72 −$72 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$1,225
other 28% −$215
finance 4% −$7
world 1% −$41
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 28m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 92¢ $96 18h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $195 18h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $256 18h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 30h
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Zeynep Sonmez 52¢ $41 33h
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette SELL Magda Linette 48¢ $49 33h
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 48¢ $51 34h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $151 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 34h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $35 45h
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $29 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 88¢ $32 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 68¢ $25 2d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $79 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $56 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $19 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 88¢ $72 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $18 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 77¢ $19 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Seattle Mariners 99¢ $37 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $15 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $10 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $20 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +39.3% +26.0% 88% 84% +14.0%
≤30d 109 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 48% -21.5%
≤90d 194 -7.7% -16.5% 52% 47% -22.6%
all 221 -7.6% -16.4% 51% 46% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 46% -22.3%
10% -24.4% 37% -29.8%
15% -31.7% 29% -36.5%
20% -38.4% 20% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.01 · official $206.02 (match) · 536 history records