Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd48a…6e90
sports · 384 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,626,532 -64%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,626,862 · open +$567
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$230,251
Realized−$1,626,862
Unrealized+$567
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses214 / 430
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$32,308
Open positions64
Markets (closed)644 / 384
History coverage20d
Avg bet$6,612
Trades / day158.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 64 History 644 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,677,968
7 days−$1,645,724
14 days−$1,623,658
30 days−$1,626,862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $23,320 $23,356 +$36 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $11,500 $13,684 +$2,184 (+19%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ 57¢ $7,320 $10,017 +$2,698 (+37%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 77¢ 96¢ $7,850 $9,760 +$1,910 (+24%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ 62¢ $7,316 $9,146 +$1,829 (+25%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $7,411 $8,440 +$1,029 (+14%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ 60¢ $7,316 $7,256 −$60 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ 52¢ $7,317 $7,247 −$70 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 52¢ 52¢ $7,317 $7,247 −$70 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $7,316 $7,246 −$70 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 50¢ $7,316 $7,243 −$73 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 49¢ 48¢ $7,316 $7,241 −$75 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 48¢ 48¢ $7,316 $7,240 −$76 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 48¢ 48¢ $7,316 $7,240 −$76 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 45¢ 44¢ $7,316 $7,235 −$81 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ 58¢ $7,316 $7,133 −$183 (-2%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 36¢ 34¢ $7,316 $7,009 −$307 (-4%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 42¢ 42¢ $6,473 $6,550 +$77 (+1%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $5,555 $5,590 +$35 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 65¢ 65¢ $5,217 $5,207 −$10 (-0%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $4,823 $4,551 −$272 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $4,400 $3,850 −$550 (-13%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $3,444 $3,621 +$177 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 64¢ 90¢ $2,357 $3,315 +$958 (+41%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $3,344 $3,273 −$71 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $7,316 −$7,316 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $7,314 −$7,314 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? Jun 13 $2,004 −$2,004 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $7,314 −$7,314 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $7,316 −$7,316 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 13 $1,777 −$1,777 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $7,314 −$7,314 -100%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $810 −$810 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Jun 13 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 13 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2,004 −$2,004 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $7,146 −$7,146 -100%
FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,993 −$1,993 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Jun 13 $979 −$979 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2,007 −$2,007 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,149 −$2,149 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-27? Jun 13 $1,981 −$1,981 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 13 $3,134 −$3,134 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,973 −$1,973 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 13 $9,999 −$9,999 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Jun 13 $7,317 −$7,317 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $7,317 −$7,317 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Jun 13 $7,314 −$7,314 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 13 $7,316 −$7,316 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 Jun 13 $5,480 −$5,480 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $700 −$700 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 13 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $7,347 −$7,347 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 13 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 Jun 13 $6,498 −$6,498 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 13 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $7,317 −$7,317 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $7,317 −$7,317 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $7,319 −$7,319 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 13 $600 −$600 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $7,460 −$7,460 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$76,334
other 7% +$12,821
world 0% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $18 0m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $1 0m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $1 2m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $19 7m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $34 9m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $34 9m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $7,430 10m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $358 11m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 15m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $216 25m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $131 28m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $4 34m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 43m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $4 43m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 43m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $106 44m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 44m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $3 44m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 48m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 53m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $12 55m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $54 59m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $27 59m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $3,434 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $16 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $9 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $14 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $16 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $57 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 396 -72.4% -75.0% 17% 14% -70.8%
≤30d 644 -44.3% -49.6% 33% 29% -45.9%
≤90d 644 -44.3% -49.6% 33% 29% -45.9%
all 644 -44.3% -49.6% 33% 29% -45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover158.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.6% 29% -45.9%
10% -54.4% 27% -51.0%
15% ← realistic here -58.8% 23% -55.8%
20% -62.9% 20% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230,250.70 · official $230,252.93 (match) · 3500 history records