Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd489…7f08 weather 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized −$12 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$45
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.7% -8.9% 62% 14% -6.2%
≤30d 21 +0.7% -8.9% 62% 14% -6.2%
≤90d 21 +0.7% -8.9% 62% 14% -6.2%
all 21 +0.7% -8.9% 62% 14% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 14% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 5% -15.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -23.3%
20% -32.9% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$714
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage3d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $113 +$8 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $71 +$5 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 −$4 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $35 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $36 +$3 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $0 $0 -53%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $177 13m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $6 36m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $60 39m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $90 41m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $120 42m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $7 44m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $107 45m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $7 49m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $6 50m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $22 55m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $7 55m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $33 59m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $267 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $111 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 82¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $13 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $713.83 · official $715.44 (match) · 94 history records