trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 21 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 62% | 14% | -6.2% |
| ≤30d | 21 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 62% | 14% | -6.2% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 62% | 14% | -6.2% |
| all | 21 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 62% | 14% | -6.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -8.9% | 14% | -6.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -17.6% | 5% | -15.1% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -23.3% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -30.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? | No | 90¢ | 94¢ | $319 | $333 | +$14 (+4%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $247 | $256 | +$10 (+4%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $36 | $37 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 21? | No | 93¢ | 95¢ | $25 | $25 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 21? | No | 98¢ | 97¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? | No | 92¢ | 86¢ | $25 | $24 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $7 | $8 | +$1 (+19%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 (+22%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju | Jun 20 | $113 | +$8 | +7% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? | Jun 20 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? | Jun 20 | $71 | +$5 | +8% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? | Jun 20 | $37 | −$4 | -10% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 20? | Jun 20 | $37 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? | Jun 20 | $12 | +$3 | +22% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? | Jun 20 | $35 | +$3 | +9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? | Jun 20 | $7 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? | Jun 20 | $36 | +$3 | +7% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? | Jun 20 | $24 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? | Jun 20 | $7 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? | Jun 20 | $22 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? | Jun 19 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? | Jun 19 | $8 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? | Jun 19 | $6 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? | Jun 19 | $6 | −$1 | -16% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? | Jun 19 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? | Jun 18 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? | Jun 18 | $50 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $0 | $0 | -53% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | -7% |