Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd487…c325
sports · 5 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,449 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$646 · open −$803
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$6
Realized−$646
Unrealized−$803
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$716
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$646
7 days−$646
14 days−$646
30 days−$646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 69¢ $809 $6 −$803 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 26¢ $660 $0 −$660 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $207 −$178 -86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $308 −$83 -27%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,557 +$275 +18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $681 −$660 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$1,449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $825 57m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy $29 58m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Legacy 13¢ $130 59m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 76¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 81¢ $68 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 20¢ $207 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 20¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 19¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 82¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 87¢ $1,094 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 79¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 81¢ $1,033 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 66¢ $522 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 67¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 67¢ $202 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $513 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $681 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -48.8% -53.7% 25% 25% -30.9%
≤30d 4 -48.8% -53.7% 25% 25% -30.9%
≤90d 4 -48.8% -53.7% 25% 25% -30.9%
all 4 -48.8% -53.7% 25% 25% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.7% 25% -30.9%
10% ← realistic here -58.1% 0% -37.5%
15% -62.2% 0% -43.6%
20% -65.9% 0% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.86 · official $855.99 · 17 history records