Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd484…27c7 crypto 432 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-1%) realized −$112 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%262W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$82
14 days−$452
30 days−$409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$404
sports 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -13.6% -21.9% 54% 46% -19.1%
≤30d 264 -8.6% -17.3% 59% 39% -13.2%
≤90d 431 -6.6% -15.5% 61% 40% -13.1%
all 431 -6.6% -15.5% 61% 40% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 40% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 26% -21.4%
15% -31.0% 18% -29.0%
20% -37.7% 13% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses262 / 169
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)431 / 432
History coverage39d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $24 +$24 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$36 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$12 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $97 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$31 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $30 −$27 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 06 $36 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 06 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $19 +$14 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 06 $12 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 06 $49 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $52 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $76 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 06 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 06 $73 +$21 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 06 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $25 +$5 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $35 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $77 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $62 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $14 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $15 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $14 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $27 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $27 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $35 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $34 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $36 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.06 · official $0.00 · 1634 history records