Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd483…23b6 other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%21W / 142L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$29
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$24
politics 30% −$20
sports 16% −$7
crypto 10% −$8
economics 4% −$2
culture 3% −$1
world 2% −$3
tech 2% −$2
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 74 -0.7% -10.2% 3% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 149 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 163 -0.5% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses21 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage102d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $264 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 18 $47 −$3 -7%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $43 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $45 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $323 −$3 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $61 −$2 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $118 −$2 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $97 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $44 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $41 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $116 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $97 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $693 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $412 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 8h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 9h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 14h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 14h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 87¢ $44 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $47 27h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 28h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 32h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $45 32h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $45 36h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 37h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 45h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 89¢ $52 46h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $54 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $17 2d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $17 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $51 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $51 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $42 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 3d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.79 · official $48.69 (match) · 690 history records