Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd483…95ea
sports · 49 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$21 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$51 · open −$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$270
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses25 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions17
Markets (closed)32 / 49
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 17 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 88¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 74¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+8%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Paraguay 78¢ 78¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 77¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Qatar 69¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 87¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals No 84¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 71¢ 60¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 68¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Global Esports 71¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals No 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Over 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? No 84¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Under 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$5 +45%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$7 +45%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $21 +$8 +40%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 +$13 +41%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $26 +$9 +33%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $26 +$10 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$5 +49%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $42 +$10 +23%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +30%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $7 +$1 +14%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $12 +$5 +40%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $8 +$3 +38%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $10 +$4 +42%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $27 +$7 +24%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $26 −$25 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% +$16
other 23% +$11
world 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $5 3m
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $51 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 71¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 68¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 70¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 68¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 65¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 68¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 68¢ $5 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 3h
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 78¢ $5 4h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $5 4h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 79¢ $5 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 69¢ $5 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 69¢ $5 8h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $5 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $5 9h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $5 9h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $5 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $3 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $5 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $24 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.5% -4.6% 78% 78% +2.4%
≤30d 32 +5.5% -4.6% 78% 78% +2.4%
≤90d 32 +5.5% -4.6% 78% 78% +2.4%
all 32 +5.5% -4.6% 78% 78% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 78% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 72% -7.4%
15% -22.0% 44% -16.3%
20% -29.7% 0% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.32 · official $272.40 (match) · 128 history records