Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd482…7680 crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (256 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+2%) realized +$46 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate63%66W / 39L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day256.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$44
other 2% +$5
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (256 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +6.1% -4.0% 63% 33% -7.7%
≤30d 105 +6.1% -4.0% 63% 33% -7.7%
≤90d 105 +6.1% -4.0% 63% 33% -7.7%
all 105 +6.1% -4.0% 63% 33% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover256.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 33% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 19% -16.5%
15% -21.6% 10% -24.6%
20% -29.3% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses66 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)105 / 109
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day256.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $41 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$53 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$27 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$22 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.40 · official $19.40 (match) · 357 history records