Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd482…d8fc crypto 451 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,917 (+4%) realized +$4,917 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate81%406W / 97L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day133.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$640
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -31.8% -38.3% 59% 13% -31.9%
≤30d 503 -5.5% -14.5% 81% 15% -14.6%
≤90d 503 -5.5% -14.5% 81% 15% -14.6%
all 503 -5.5% -14.5% 81% 15% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 15% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 7% -22.8%
15% -30.2% 4% -30.3%
20% -37.0% 4% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$168 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$4,917
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses406 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)503 / 451
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$311
Trades / day133.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 503 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +300%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,129 −$1,129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $494 −$494 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $222 −$222 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$115 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $309 −$309 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$150 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $613 −$613 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1,229 −$1,229 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $924 −$924 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $657 −$657 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $861 −$861 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $76 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $62 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $78 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $71 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $71 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $91 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.51 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records