Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D4 0xd481…afd1 world 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 350d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 40L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days+$6
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$23
economics 23% $0
other 21% +$6
sports 17% −$3
politics 5% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.4% -8.3% 36% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 34 -0.5% -10.0% 32% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 49 +0.2% -9.3% 39% 4% -9.2%
all 62 -0.0% -9.6% 35% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

350d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 40
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage350d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $206 −$3 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $132 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $38 +$3 +8%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $90 −$2 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $119 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $54 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $176 +$4 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $49 +$3 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -36%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $107 −$4 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $107 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $23 +$2 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $167 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $105 +$3 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -20%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $17 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $106 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $134 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $96 +$4 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $112 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $145 +$5 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $101 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $94 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $40 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $26 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $25 +$4 +15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 +5%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $686 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $646 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $153 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $1,421 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 12 $137 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $67 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $86 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $122 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $122 9h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $34 17h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $64 17h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 87¢ $96 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $38 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $88 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $90 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $26 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $119 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $112 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $60 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $73 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records