Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd481…4f97 crypto 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+1%) realized +$67 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate94%123W / 8L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$11
politics 28% +$49
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% +$6
world 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 27 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 4% -9.3%
all 131 +0.0% -9.5% 94% 21% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 21% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 8% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 4% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses123 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)131 / 134
History coverage598d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? No 89¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 18? Jun 21 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 26 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 19 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 12 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 05 $163 +$1 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 03 $2 $0 +7%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 03 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 27 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? Apr 20 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 10 $152 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? Apr 04 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $146 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 31? Apr 01 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 13? Mar 14 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 9? Mar 10 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 09 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Feb 28 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 24? Feb 24 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 21? Feb 22 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 17? Feb 19 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? Feb 16 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 14? Feb 15 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on February 3? Feb 04 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $153 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Feb 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $148 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $92 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $90 8d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 9d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? BUY No 89¢ $7 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $97 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $7 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $159 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $154 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $163 49d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $144 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $145 62d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY No 68¢ $5 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $152 64d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $4 72d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? BUY No 93¢ $2 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $152 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $158 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $160 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $146 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $134 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $134 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $129 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $135 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $135 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 95d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of March? BUY No 99¢ $4 95d
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? BUY No 99¢ $5 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.79 · official $106.79 (match) · 302 history records