Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd480…0242 sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139 (-20%) realized −$113 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$92
politics 18% −$124
other 15% +$9
crypto 5% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -11.6% -20.1% 27% 27% -27.5%
≤30d 26 -11.6% -20.1% 27% 27% -27.5%
≤90d 27 -14.8% -22.9% 26% 26% -43.9%
all 28 -13.1% -21.4% 29% 29% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 29% -42.7%
10% -28.9% 29% -48.2%
15% -35.8% 14% -53.2%
20% -42.1% 11% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage99d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Angelina Voloshchuk 28¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jesper de Jong 42¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $25 −$5 -18%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $10 +$6 +58%
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $30 −$7 -22%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $15 −$3 -19%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $20 −$2 -11%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $20 −$1 -7%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $40 −$23 -56%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $20 −$4 -22%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $15 +$8 +55%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Jun 16 $41 −$22 -54%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $31 −$2 -5%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $15 +$9 +61%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $15 −$6 -38%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $25 −$8 -33%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $130 −$124 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Jerome Kym 21¢ $6 19m
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson SELL Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 28¢ $4 19m
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva SELL Frederico Ferreira Silva 81¢ $14 25m
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Tomas Etcheverry 11¢ $8 25m
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur SELL Clement Tabur 100¢ $7 25m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Alejandro Tabilo 48¢ $9 25m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin SELL Viktorija Golubic 95¢ $11 25m
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia SELL Julia Riera 61¢ $10 26m
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Alex de Minaur 93¢ $13 26m
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Thanasi Kokkinakis 66¢ $15 26m
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Alan Wazny 23¢ $13 26m
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 89¢ $16 26m
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov SELL Franco Ribero 41¢ $20 26m
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $9 27m
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao SELL Xinyu Gao $2 27m
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk SELL Darja Vidmanova 100¢ $7 27m
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain SELL Gilles Arnaud Bailly 88¢ $6 27m
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Gabriel Diallo $6 27m
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin SELL Norbert Gombos 100¢ $6 27m
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel SELL Clara Burel 69¢ $6 27m
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson SELL Fiona Ferro 73¢ $5 27m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 48¢ $5 27m
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 57¢ $4 27m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic SELL Ugo Humbert 51¢ $5 27m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin SELL Sofia Kenin $1 27m
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia SELL Mathilde Lollia 38¢ $8 28m
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov SELL Pavel Kotov 58¢ $3 28m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Sara Bejlek 68¢ $4 28m
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson SELL Kajsa Rinaldo Persson 24¢ $7 28m
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 31¢ $5 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.00 · official $109.00 (match) · 144 history records