Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd480…afe7 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% $0
politics 19% −$5
sports 10% −$5
economics 5% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.7% -5.3% 17% 17% -8.4%
≤30d 18 +1.5% -8.2% 17% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 116 +2.4% -7.4% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 122 +2.3% -7.5% 11% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 7% -9.6%
10% -16.3% 7% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 109
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage97d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 49¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 +$6 +29%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $156 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $362 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $403 $0 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $193 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $357 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $378 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $176 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $355 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $338 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $192 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $194 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $177 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $505 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $381 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $368 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $373 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $376 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $15 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $117 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $41 10d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $41 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 19d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 19d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 19d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 19d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 20d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.14 · official $175.14 (match) · 352 history records