Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D4 0xd47e…7efe politics 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$130
other 40% −$7
crypto 7% −$2
sports 7% −$63
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 +0.2% -9.3% 5% 5% -8.8%
all 99 -3.1% -12.4% 7% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 7% -9.2%
10% -20.8% 6% -17.9%
15% -28.4% 5% -25.8%
20% -35.4% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$2 · ×17.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage118d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $393 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $137 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $167 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $139 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $145 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $325 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 11 $132 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $475 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $151 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $190 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $183 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $326 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $170 +$140 +82%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $496 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $133 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $137 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $143 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $176 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $197 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $140 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $164 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 16h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 34h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $28 46h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $137 29d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $137 30d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $167 30d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $167 32d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $139 33d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $139 34d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $188 35d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $188 35d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $145 36d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $145 36d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $132 36d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $132 37d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $164 37d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $164 38d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 38d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 40d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $145 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 275 history records