Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd479…1920
sports · 724 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$409 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$404 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$404
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses393 / 330
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions1
Markets (closed)723 / 724
History coverage60d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 723 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$97
14 days+$43
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Eintracht Spandau 72¢ 34¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$26 -52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$15 +144%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$6 -55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $89 +$6 +7%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$21 -82%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $14 +$6 +45%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $6 +$4 +75%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $20 +$3 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $79 +$7 +9%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $19 +$1 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 09 $10 +$7 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$2 +33%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$4 +37%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$1 -13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 +$5 +156%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$7 +65%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $28 +$12 +43%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Dino (BO1) - Asia Masters Group Jun 08 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$6 +62%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$1 -4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $40 +$15 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$480
other 8% +$68
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 72¢ $9 7m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 87¢ $12 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 67¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $10 4h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $10 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 63¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 86¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 77¢ $10 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 93¢ $25 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 93¢ $0 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $5 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $5 7h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 27¢ $5 8h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 58¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 67¢ $10 28h
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $95 32h
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 67¢ $10 33h
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $89 36h
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $20 39h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 61¢ $20 40h
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 43h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 69¢ $14 43h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $1 43h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY paiN Gaming 66¢ $5 43h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY paiN Gaming 76¢ $10 43h
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 24¢ $4 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +10.1% -0.4% 65% 58% -4.7%
≤30d 324 -1.0% -10.5% 57% 53% -12.2%
≤90d 723 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 51% -12.2%
all 723 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 51% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 51% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 47% -20.6%
15% -27.4% 39% -28.2%
20% -34.5% 29% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.48 · official $4.49 (match) · 1924 history records