Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd478…9239
crypto · 727 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$281 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$281 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses339 / 388
Open positions0
Markets (closed)727 / 727
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day264.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 727 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$187
14 days−$281
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$289
other 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 434 -12.2% -20.6% 48% 38% -16.8%
≤30d 727 -12.1% -20.5% 47% 40% -17.7%
≤90d 727 -12.1% -20.5% 47% 40% -17.7%
all 727 -12.1% -20.5% 47% 40% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover264.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 40% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 33% -25.6%
15% -35.1% 28% -32.8%
20% -41.4% 21% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records