Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D4 0xd477…96b5 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+14%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$99
14 days+$116
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$62
other 22% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +26.0% +14.0% 71% 57% +31.6%
≤30d 12 +27.0% +14.9% 67% 58% +31.9%
≤90d 12 +27.0% +14.9% 67% 58% +31.9%
all 12 +27.0% +14.9% 67% 58% +31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 58% +31.9%
10% +3.9% 50% +19.2%
15% -6.1% 42% +7.7%
20% -15.3% 33% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$6 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.55 per $1 lost it wins $5.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage8d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 +$21 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $51 +$5 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $31 +$47 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +206%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 53¢ $56 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $51 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $31 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 87¢ $50 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $54 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $20 6d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas - Game 3 Winner BUY Miami Heretics 29¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 8d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY OpTic Texas 94¢ $6 8d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner SELL OpTic Texas 100¢ $6 8d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 78¢ $5 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records