Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D4 0xd475…825d other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$946 (+98%) realized +$895 · open +$51
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$653now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$926
7 days+$955
14 days+$875
30 days+$875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$987
world 10% −$93
sports 7% +$9
culture 3% +$19
crypto 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +83.7% +66.2% 25% 25% +360.9%
≤30d 10 +58.9% +43.8% 30% 30% +221.8%
≤90d 10 +58.9% +43.8% 30% 30% +221.8%
all 10 +58.9% +43.8% 30% 30% +221.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.8% 30% +221.8%
10% +30.0% 20% +191.0%
15% +17.4% 20% +162.9%
20% +5.9% 20% +137.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +256% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +256% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$27 · ×13.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.57 per $1 lost it wins $5.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$653
Realized+$895
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage15d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $457 $487 +$30 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $25 $44 +$19 (+76%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 19¢ 29¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -83%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 +$1,008 +982%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$5 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $652.98 · official $652.98 (match) · 40 history records