Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D4 0xd474…da47 other 1610 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1601W / 4L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$13
sports 44% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 344 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 600 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1249 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 1605 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1601 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1605 / 1610
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pigeons (-2.5) vs ROSE (+2.5) Pigeons 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Denzer Guzman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Under 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: QoR (-4.5) vs Team Evictix (+4.5) Team Evictix 100¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 100¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Promise David: 3+ shots on target Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Nate Eaton: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Caleb Durbin: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Esmir Bajraktarević: 2+ shots Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Ermin Mahmić: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals + assists Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Akram Afif: 1+ goals + assists Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Dženis Burnić: 1+ shots Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Amar Memić: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Edmilson Junior: 2+ assists Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Zeki Amdouni: 1+ assists Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the match not air? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Delattre vs. Torcq: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Martinez vs. Ma: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Klaassen vs. Pow: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Akli (-1.5) vs Fairclough (+1.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Enterprise Esports (-2.5) vs Joblife (+2.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Kuwata vs. Evans: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Makhlouf vs Ferra Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Agostini/Johansson vs. Fuchs/Thayne: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Goncalo Marques vs. Jeffrey Fradkin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Pellegrino Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Stevenson/Willis vs Harrison/Skupski Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
ITF Men Slovenska Bistrica: Completed Match: Matyas Fuele vs Alexander Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Gojo vs. Smith: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fennel (-6.5) vs IGZIST (+6.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Monteleone (-1.5) vs Salah (+1.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Rocha vs Singh Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Men Tanger: Completed Match: Younes Lalami Laaroussi vs Matthieu C Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Chiesa vs. Fetecau: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Giotis vs. Chopra: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Sun vs. Dodin: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Barbulescu vs. Popa: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Anavatan vs. Tepmahc: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Villoslada vs. Nikles: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Obradovic vs Tepic Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Barun vs. Vukadin: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Banthia/Donski vs. Ganchev/Genov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Brian Bozemoj vs. Gabriele Maria Noce: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Travaglia vs. Zhou: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Evans vs. Schoolkate: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Narti vs. Koning: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Maria vs. Zakharova: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ shots Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Denzer Guzman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 0m
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pigeons (-2.5) vs ROSE (+2.5) BUY Pigeons 100¢ $5 4m
Promise David: 3+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 26m
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: QoR (-4.5) vs Team Evictix (+4.5) BUY Team Evictix 100¢ $5 50m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 54m
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wo BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Nate Eaton: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 1h
Caleb Durbin: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 1h
Esmir Bajraktarević: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Ermin Mahmić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Akram Afif: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Edmilson Junior: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Dženis Burnić: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Amar Memić: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Zeki Amdouni: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Delattre vs. Torcq: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 3h
Martinez vs. Ma: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3h
Will the match not air? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Klaassen vs. Pow: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 4h
Set Handicap: Akli (-1.5) vs Fairclough (+1.5) BUY Akli 100¢ $5 4h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR Academy (-3.5) vs Isurus (+3.5) BUY MIBR Academy 100¢ $5 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Enterprise Esports (-2.5) vs Joblife (+2.5) BUY Joblife 100¢ $5 5h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 5h
Kuwata vs. Evans: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Set 2 Winner: Makhlouf vs Ferra BUY Ferra 100¢ $5 6h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Agostini/Johansson vs. Fuchs/Thayne: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.95 · official $23.95 (match) · 3500 history records