Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd474…5dd6 crypto 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$175 (+0%) realized +$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate84%135W / 26L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$53
economics 26% −$16
sports 15% +$84
politics 10% +$274
crypto 7% −$117
world 0% −$1
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 161 +10.2% -0.3% 84% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 11% -9.3%
10% -9.8% 9% -18.0%
15% -18.5% 7% -25.9%
20% -26.5% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses135 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage592d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 23 $60 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 9-15? Apr 06 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? Feb 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14? Jan 08 $61 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 December 1-7? Dec 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 December 1-7? Dec 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 03 $26 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? Dec 03 $29 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 03 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? Nov 26 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 4? Nov 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 03 $26 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 03 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 13 $10 $0 -3%
Will Solana dip to $170 October 6-12? Oct 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will XRP dip to $2.50 October 6-12? Oct 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 6-12? Oct 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 6-12? Oct 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $170 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 03 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.70 September 15-21? Oct 03 $42 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $280 September 8–14? Sep 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $2.50 on September 15? Sep 19 $22 $0 +1%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Sep 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin above $118K on September 5? Sep 14 $26 $0 +0%
Solana reach 250 September 1–7? Sep 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on August 27? Sep 04 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $116K on August 27? Sep 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Sep 04 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10? BUY No 100¢ $60 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $60 48d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $60 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $60 77d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 9-15? BUY No 99¢ $120 101d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 118d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $41 140d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $80 140d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $61 165d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $60 165d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $61 195d
Will XRP dip to $1.30 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $34 201d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $27 201d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $27 201d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $32 201d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? BUY No 99¢ $29 208d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? BUY No 99¢ $29 211d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 4? BUY No 100¢ $29 231d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 99¢ $31 231d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $33 231d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $26 231d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $20 252d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $26 252d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 98¢ $32 252d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $40 252d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? SELL No 95¢ $10 252d
Will Solana dip to $170 October 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $20 259d
Will XRP dip to $2.50 October 6-12? BUY No 99¢ $30 259d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.09 · official $123.09 (match) · 355 history records