Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D4 0xd474…5ede sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%28W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 3 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 10 -2.2% -11.5% 20% 10% -8.6%
all 85 -13.2% -21.5% 33% 32% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 32% -9.1%
10% -29.0% 32% -17.8%
15% -35.8% 32% -25.7%
20% -42.1% 31% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses28 / 57
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage466d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $290 −$3 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $138 −$3 -2%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $599 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $304 $0 -0%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr May 09 $345 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 09 $195 −$3 -2%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) May 01 $37 −$1 -2%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 May 01 $29 −$1 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $50 +$43 +87%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Valparaiso Beacons vs. UIC Flames Mar 07 $5 +$13 +245%
Harvard Crimson vs. Cornell Big Red Mar 07 $8 +$14 +170%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Houston Cougars Mar 07 $8 +$16 +203%
West Georgia Wolves vs. Queens (NC) Royals Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Utah Valley Wolverines vs. UT Arlington Mavericks Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Missouri State Bears vs. Florida International Golden Panthers Feb 21 $8 −$8 -100%
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Air Force Falcons Feb 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Rhode Island Rams vs. La Salle Explorers Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Louisville Cardinals Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Le Moyne Dolphins vs. Stonehill Skyhawks Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Samford Bulldogs vs. Mercer Bears Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Central Arkansas Bears vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles Feb 21 $8 −$8 -100%
SIUE Cougars vs. Tennessee State Tigers Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Duquesne Dukes vs. Dayton Flyers Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Loyola Maryland Greyhounds vs. Colgate Raiders Feb 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Davidson Wildcats vs. Fordham Rams Feb 21 $8 −$8 -100%
LIU Sharks vs. Mercyhurst Lakers Feb 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Stars vs. Sharks Jan 11 $30 +$45 +150%
Lightning vs. Flyers Jan 11 $50 +$35 +70%
Ducks vs. Sabres Jan 11 $50 +$35 +70%
Rangers vs. Bruins Jan 11 $50 +$41 +82%
Panthers vs. Senators Jan 11 $50 +$50 +100%
Kraken vs. Hurricanes Jan 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanche Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Flames vs. Penguins Jan 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 Jan 10 $50 +$35 +70%
Capitals vs. Blackhawks Jan 10 $50 +$38 +75%
Blues vs. Utah Jan 10 $50 +$31 +61%
Jazz vs. Nets Jan 10 $6 +$4 +59%
Lakers vs. Raptors Jan 10 $6 +$6 +96%
Kings vs. Jets Jan 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Suns: O/U 228.5 Jan 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. 76ers Dec 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Mavericks Dec 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Dec 04 $5 +$6 +127%
Heat vs. Bulls Dec 04 $6 +$8 +127%
Nets vs. Celtics Dec 04 $3 +$15 +488%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 14¢ $33 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $4 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 85¢ $217 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $13 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $28 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $31 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $0 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $4 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $16 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $118 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $0 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 14¢ $35 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 15¢ $8 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 15¢ $29 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $38 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $0 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 85¢ $100 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $38 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $99 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 27¢ $1 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 74¢ $8 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 74¢ $185 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records