Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd473…3feb sports 580 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$14,419 (-20%) realized −$14,467 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%325W / 254L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day70.7pace
Fees−$1,045est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$543
other 14% −$1,512
crypto 5% +$30
world 2% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -5.0% -14.0% 56% 46% -15.5%
≤30d 372 -3.0% -12.3% 55% 45% -11.9%
≤90d 579 -1.8% -11.1% 56% 47% -10.8%
all 579 -1.8% -11.1% 56% 47% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 47% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 41% -19.3%
15% -27.4% 38% -27.1%
20% -34.5% 29% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$79 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$14,467
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses325 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1,045
Open positions1
Markets (closed)579 / 580
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$125
Trades / day70.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 90¢ $232 $281 +$48 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $153 −$18 -12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $126 −$2 -2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $219 −$99 -45%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $84 +$12 +14%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $304 +$80 +26%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger end in a draw? Jun 18 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 18 $77 +$22 +28%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $227 +$41 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $236 −$32 -14%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen: O/U 160.5 Jun 17 $389 −$221 -57%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $382 +$27 +7%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $60 +$45 +74%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $182 +$57 +31%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $126 −$30 -24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $267 +$91 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $301 +$48 +16%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $67 −$25 -37%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $54 +$46 +85%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $63 +$47 +75%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $114 +$86 +75%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 Jun 15 $144 −$144 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $346 +$185 +54%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $99 +$10 +10%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $49 +$51 +104%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $265 −$265 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $69 +$9 +13%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $82 +$18 +21%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $260 −$121 -46%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 +$3 +6%
Will IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour end in a draw? Jun 14 $121 −$64 -52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $174 +$87 +50%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $111 +$87 +78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 +$3 +7%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 158.5 Jun 14 $314 +$144 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $251 −$112 -45%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $147 +$63 +43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $200 +$116 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $232 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Atlanta Dream 45¢ $135 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 45¢ $124 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 51¢ $153 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 36¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 36¢ $8 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 36¢ $20 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 36¢ $73 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 36¢ $1 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 36¢ $9 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $117 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 63¢ $63 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $39 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $27 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $87 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $2 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $94 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $2 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 64¢ $3 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 64¢ $3 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 64¢ $3 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 64¢ $3 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 64¢ $3 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 64¢ $3 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 64¢ $3 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 64¢ $3 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 64¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.55 · official $280.55 (match) · 3500 history records