Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd46f…6bf8 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$4
politics 19% +$1
other 18% +$2
sports 12% −$13
economics 5% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 27 +2.1% -7.7% 30% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 78 +5.3% -4.7% 36% 4% -9.4%
all 87 +1.7% -8.0% 34% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 5% -9.7%
10% -16.8% 3% -18.4%
15% -24.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -32.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 57
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage540d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 40¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $42 +$1 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $61 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $111 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $36 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $35 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $40 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $35 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $76 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $69 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $43 −$1 -3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $74 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $43 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $9 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $42 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $15 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $23 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $37 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.13 · official $42.01 (match) · 353 history records