Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd46e…11f4
crypto · 721 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$200 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$295 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$295
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses675 / 89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)764 / 721
History coverage18d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day158.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 764 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$101
14 days−$176
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 18? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 17? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 17? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$17 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$32
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -37.6% -43.6% 32% 23% -15.9%
≤30d 764 -6.2% -15.1% 88% 4% -10.8%
≤90d 764 -6.2% -15.1% 88% 4% -10.8%
all 764 -6.2% -15.1% 88% 4% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover158.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 4% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 3% -19.3%
15% -30.7% 3% -27.1%
20% -37.5% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records